Tomasz Tunguz

Amodei asked the industry to pace itself, but nobody defined the word. Five camps answered : interpretability wants time to understand models, labor wants time for workers, the economic camp wants growth to service the debt, the geopolitical camp wants position against China, & the regulatory capture camp wants no new rules. Each priced the consequences of a pause & none named a speed. The one mechanism that could produce a number, a training compute threshold, was tried in 2023 at 10^26 FLOPS, revoked before any model crossed it, & obsolete within weeks.

OpenAI disclosed that its researchers now supervise 3.14 agent-workdays for every 8-hour human workday. Rather than making programmers three times smarter, software development is turning into a 24-hour factory where inference behaves like heavy tooling capex running multiple shifts.